Proceedings of ICLT 2022

Multimodal Transport of Humantarian Relief Cargo from Western Europe to Ukraine: From Costing Modelling to Risk Modelling

Anthony Beresford; Stephen Pettit

Cardiff Business School, Cardiff University, Cardiff, Wales, UK; Cardiff Business School, Cardiff University, Cardiff, Wales, UK

International Conference on Logistics & Transport 2022, Krabi, Thailand, pp. 156-159

Download PDF | View interactive page

Abstract

This paper considers the operational aspects of humanitarian response to the Ukraine war which resulted in the mass displacement of several million people both internally and externally, and large-scale disruption the movement of goods along their traditional routes. An established model regularly used for mapping supply chain operations with an emphasis on cost, distance, time and modal choice in the first instance. This paper then suggests, following the same operations management approach, a risk-based analysis such that routes, transport methods, times and distances are used as a starting-point for evaluating reliability of freight transport by less orthodox modal combinations in volatile environments. The pioneering work of Banomyong and Beresford [1] was probably the first attempt to build the concept of risk into multimodal transport chains by means of employing a ‘confidence index’, but the study considered only stable commercial environments. Design Approach: This paper is a desk-study, based on an interpretation of a real-time crisis which is ongoing. The invasion of eastern Ukraine precipitated the mass evacuation of populations over wide areas and the use of emergency transport solutions for both freight and human transport. Information has been obtained from secondary sources, primarily media coverage, and this is combined with factual data (e.g., distances) acquired from published sources. Sources include a complex mix of agencies, UN, UK government supported programmes and non-governmental, independent private suppliers of aid. Findings: The extreme conditions prevailing in much of the Ukraine have necessitated the use of transport combinations which go as close as possible to ensuring the maximum rate of delivery is achieved. However, risks are substantial and intermittent which implies that at least two, and preferably more routes and modal combinations are employed. Risks are sufficiently high to suggest that an established cost-based model, widely

Keywords

Humanitarian Modelling; Case Study

Citation

Anthony Beresford; Stephen Pettit (2022). Multimodal Transport of Humantarian Relief Cargo from Western Europe to Ukraine: From Costing Modelling to Risk Modelling. Proceedings of the International Conference on Logistics & Transport (ICLT 2022), Krabi, Thailand, pp. 156-159.