FORECASTING TRADE NETWORK OF Thailand AND ASEAN THROUGH GRAVITY MODEL APPROACH

Natjira Jinafoei; Poon Thiengburanathum; Poti Chao

Proceedings of ICLT 2014

FORECASTING TRADE NETWORK OF Thailand AND ASEAN THROUGH GRAVITY MODEL APPROACH

Natjira Jinafoei; Poon Thiengburanathum; Poti Chao

Department of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Chiang Mai University, Thailand; Department of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Chiang Mai University, Thailand; Supply Chain and Engineering Management Research Unit, Faculty of Engineering, Chiang Mai University, Chiang Mai, Thailand

International Conference on Logistics & Transport 2014, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, pp. 119-124

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Abstract

Purpose: Through the geographical characteristics, Thailand has been proclaimed as the central hub of ASEAN region. Extensive trade activities and economic prosperity are expected within the region. This study investigates the trade value of Thailand and its network to obtain benefits of the forthcoming ASEAN Economic Community (AEC). Design/methodology/approach: This study is divided into three steps. The first step is to evaluate the trade relationship of Thailand in comparison with other ASEAN member states by using Regression Analysis. The second step is to use the past trend to forecast the future trend via Gravity Model. Finally, the result from the model of Thai trade network performance will be analysed under the context of AEC. Findings: The study identified the possible future trend of Thailand trade network among other ASEAN member states under the content of the forthcoming AEC. Research limitations/implications: This study uses adjusted Gravity Model to fit under the AEC content of the Thai trade network. Therefore, the model is derived from Thai trade perspective. Originality/value: To perform the appropriate model to evaluate the future trend of ASEAN trade network with Thailand as the central pivot point. The analysis is not limited to the ASEAN member states but also to the selected developed countries.

Keywords

Trade Value; Trade Network; Forecasting; ASEAN; AEC; Gravity Model Article Classification: Conceptual Paper

Citation

Natjira Jinafoei; Poon Thiengburanathum; Poti Chao (2014). FORECASTING TRADE NETWORK OF Thailand AND ASEAN THROUGH GRAVITY MODEL APPROACH. Proceedings of the International Conference on Logistics & Transport (ICLT 2014), Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, pp. 119-124.